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As Countries Battle A New Surge Of Covid: Experts Believe A Fourth Wave Seems Unlikely In India

Given the fact that Covid-19 instances have increased in numerous nations, specialists in India believe a fourth wave is unlikely except if a new, immune-escaping form emerges. Experts anticipate that a new variation will not arise from India because the nations' overall infectious activity has decreased dramatically.

India registered 2503 new Covid instances on Monday, the lowest daily increase in over two years. Places such as Mumbai have been reporting daily instances in the two digits, with no deaths for several days. On Tuesday, Mumbai, for example, had Fifty cases but no fatalities.

Doctor T Jacob John, a virologist in Vellore, believes that India has nothing to fear, given the fact that many other nations are experiencing an outbreak. He said that nations like China had strict testing and quarantine policies in place, which had mostly stopped the spread of prior strains. However, stopping Omicron is tough, which is why many nations are currently seeing a spike.


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According to John, India must be cautious and continue to seek newer varieties, if any exist. He stated that all operations must be resumed to their previous levels. If there is one obligation that could be kept, it must be the mask requirement, because it has no drawbacks.

A high ranking professor, Sandeep Juneja at the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research's (TIFR) Mumbai's school of computer science and technology, explained that a newer version could emerge from places or nations where the illness is still spreading rapidly, so the risk of risky mutations is not insignificant.

Juneja further stated that a new variety is unlikely to arise from India at this time because the frequency of infections has decreased drastically and the population has developed a high level of protection as a result of previous illnesses and vaccinations. In Mumbai, too, the fourth wave is improbable unless a novel variation emerges that can overcome the current immunity. Although the city has opened up and many individuals are no longer wearing masks, the number of incidents has remained low. It indicates that the virus's circulation has decreased and that mechanisms such as vaccination and infection-based immunity have also had a role.

Germany, Vietnam, South Korea, and Thailand are among the nations that are now seeing an increase in cases. China recorded over 5200 new instances in 24 hours on Tuesday, the largest rise since the epidemic began. The government has enacted several restrictions to halt the transmission, which is reported to be fueled by a'stealth' sub-variant of Omicron-BA.2.

There are various sub-lineages within Omicron. BA.2, BA.1, and BA.1.1 are the most prevalent among them. The World Health Organization (WHO) announced in early March that the fraction of reported sequences labelled BA.2 has been growing internationally in comparison to BA.1, and that preliminary evidence suggests BA.2 is intrinsically more transmissible.

A scientist at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Sitabhra Sinha who has been studying R values since the start of the pandemic, stated China is presently reporting a high frequency, but he believes that this is the Omicron variant that produced the so-called third wave. He stated that China was late to join the wave, owing to their containment policy delaying its commencement.