Omicron-Driven Third Wave Likely To Arrive Early Next Year, Peak In Feb: Covid Supermodel Panel
As per the representatives of the National Covid-19 Supermodel Group, there would undoubtedly be a third wave of coronavirus illness (Covid-19) in India after the Omicron variation replaces Delta as the prevalent strain. The third wave, led by Omicron, is expected to emerge beginning of next year and climax in February, according to Vidyasagar, the chief of the Covid Supermodel committee.
According to ANI, Vidyasagar believes the third wave will arrive in India early next year. It ought to be weaker than the second wave since the country already has extensive immunity. The third wave is unquestionably coming. India presently averages about 7,500 cases per day, with that figure projected to climb when Omicron replaces Delta as the most common form.
Nevertheless, he believes it is exceedingly improbable that India will have more daily infections than the second Covid wave. When the Delta variation was first discovered, Vidyasagar, who is also a lecturer at IIT Hyderabad, emphasised that the vaccine programme was expanded to include people who were not frontline workers, implying that the majority of the populace was unprotected at the commencement of the second Covid wave.
The IIT expert went on to say that only a small percentage of the Indian population had not been exposed to the coronavirus, using seroprevalence statistics.
He also stated that the third wave will have fewer daily instances than the second wave. They've also accumulated their capability as a result of that experience, therefore they must be able to handle it with ease.
According to Vidyasagar, the frequency of cases will be determined by Omicron's ability to evade vaccine-generated protection and natural immunity induced by earlier virus transmission.
Since they don't know, they've come up with a variety of possibilities, such as anticipating 100 per cent vaccination protection, 50 per cent vaccine protection, or no vaccine safeguards at all. The same goes for escaping natural immunity. They forecast the number of instances that might result for each situation, he said, adding that in the worst-case situation, India would not have more than two lakh cases every day.
He emphasised, however, that these are estimates rather than predictions, which may be made after more information is available to indicate how it behaves with the Indian populace.
Maninda Agrawal, another committee member, told ANI that India would record 1 lakh to 2 lakh instances each day, which would be less than the second wave.
Even though the United Kingdom has a high vaccine penetration level, it has a poor seroprevalence rate, according to Agrawal.
According to ANI, Agrawal noted that the United Kingdom has an older population and also greater obesity and other health issues. This is why, although having twenty times the number of inhabitants, the United Kingdom had 93,045 incidents yesterday while India had only 7,145. People attempting to predict what will happen in India based on what is occurring in the united kingdom, in his opinion, are making a tremendous mistake.