Rains Likely To Intensify In Next 5 Days, Says IMD

IMD has issued a weather warning for east Rajasthan and west Madhya Pradesh, predicting widespread and extremely heavy (above 20 cm) rain through August 4, with peak activity on July 31 and August 3. Rain will continue to fall heavily in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Haryana until August 4.

The monsoon has entered an active phase, which means "a strong smell of rain is forecast over sections of central India and neighboring northwest India" in the next 4-5 days, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

“A low-pressure system is forming over Uttar Pradesh, while another is forming over Jharkhand. Rain has become more intense. In addition, the winds from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal are both strong, causing the monsoon to be quite active. Because the monsoon through is going over Ganganagar and Delhi, Delhi is seeing some strong spells. However, rainfall would be heavy over central India during the next 4-5 days, especially in east Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and West Madhya Pradesh, according to RK Jenamani, senior scientist, IMD's national meteorological forecasting department.

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IMD warned that widespread rain with isolated heavy falls is quite likely in Uttar Pradesh during the next five days, while scattered, moderate rainfall is likely in Jammu & Kashmir and Punjab. According to the weather bureau, there will be severe downpour periods intermittently throughout Delhi during this time.

During the next 48 hours, the eastern end of the monsoon trough is projected to migrate north of its typical location. During the next 5-6 days, its western end is quite likely to continue south of its typical position and active.

The accompanying cyclonic circulation stretches up to 7.6 km above mean sea level and is centered over southern areas of central Uttar Pradesh. Another well-defined low-pressure area can be found across Gangetic West Bengal and neighboring Jharkhand. During the following 2-3 days, it is expected to move west-northwest across south Bihar and southern Uttar Pradesh.

On Saturday, widespread and extremely heavy rain is expected in Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, and Bihar, as well as in East Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh until August 2. On Saturday, isolated exceptionally heavy rain (above 20 cm) is expected throughout Jharkhand and East Madhya Pradesh. Extremely heavy rain is expected to persist over east Rajasthan and west Madhya Pradesh until August 4, with the heaviest rain falling between July 31 and August 3. Above East Rajasthan from July 31 to August 3 and West Madhya Pradesh from July 31 to August 2, isolated extremely heavy falls (over 20 cm) are probable.

Since June 1, there has been a 1% rain deficit across the country, with a 3% deficiency in northwest India, 1% excess in central India, 18% excess in peninsular India, and 15% deficiency in the north and northwest India. Despite heavy rains along the west coast and in portions of northwest India, there is still a rain deficit.

Because very heavy rain is forecast over east Rajasthan and parts of Madhya Pradesh, there may be some flooding in Central India,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate change and meteorology, Skymet Weather.