Why Raj Thackeray Is Going To Be On The Losing Side This Election

When you see Raj Thackeray, he looks like the angry young man, something which we have all come to associate with Amitabh Bachchan films of the seventies. he flamboyant with his thoughts and views and his expression forcefully.   He has inherited some qualities from his Uncle Bal Thackeray, the ability to speak in public, and a very Friary temper something Uddhav Thackeray does not have or he has not shown in public. But the short temper and the making of indiscriminate threatening statements on regular bases have somehow managed to isolate him. He knows the only party he can support is the BJP, even though they are already in coalition with Shiv Sena, formally the parent body for Maharashtra Navnirman Sena MSN.

If you see any of his interviews, he always seems to be in a foul mood and agitated. These qualities can easily give his opponents leverage over him. Intimidation can only take someone so far. Maybe almost a decade ago when MNS was founded these tactics did work for him. But once you are an established political party, one has to change strategies. What worked for him a decade ago will not work now? The political environment of Maharashtra has changed considerably. The Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray have quietly stood by and allowed the MNS to do all its traditional heavy lifting, like ruff rousing, violent protest,  attacks on non Maratha‘s, but instead, focused more on laying a political groundwork for future.

Traditionally these attacks were carried out by Shiv Sena. But over the years this has slowed down considerably and the effort to make Shiv Sena the biggest party in Maharashtra began and they have also succeeded to a lot of extent by taking a slightly moderate approach. Raj Thackeray for his benefit must know that if he is not able to be a major force In Maharashtra politics, he will be finished soon or worse he would have to go back to Shiv Sena with the tail between his legs.

Things do not look good for the MNS this general election. They were badly beaten by Shiv Sena in Municipal pools held in 2012. Also attacking Narendara Modi turned out to be a very poor decision for him. The BJP always had a good presence in Maharashtra and it did not go very well with BJP supporters. Shiv Sena had managed to form government and function as legislators, but MNS has not done any such thing.

The MNS party came into the political fray with a roar, but after this election it is possible no one is going paying any heed to that. They can go back rioting and intimidation. But one thing is clear; Uddhav Thackerey is going to come on top this time.