With all the internal turmoil faced by Pakistan it seems according an American Based Think Tank, by the year 2020 Pakistan could very well have nearly 200 nuclear warheads in a news report published in Press Trust of India. The Council of Foreign Relations (CFR) is one of the most eminent think tanks in America and when Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the US, he was invited to speak there.
In a statement released by the CFR they said “Though many states are downsizing their stockpiles, Asia is witnessing a buildup. Pakistan has the fastest-growing nuclear programme in the world. By 2020, it could have a stockpile of fissile material that, if weaponized, could produce as many as 200 nuclear devices.” Also Pakistan is worried about any US attempt to seize nuclear weapons from it.
South East Asia is a known strategic flash point for major conflicts in the world with three nations having nuclear bombs and India shares the border with both of them. Pakistan’s main worry has and always will be India and all their strategic and tactical preparation to counter any threat depends upon a very robust nuclear deterrence. India has a no first strike policy but Pakistan has no such policy at place and even the command and control of nuclear weapons is not in the hands of the civilian government which has simulacrum presence. Though on books the National Command Authority, is overseen by the civilian prime minister but it is all on paper and the civilians have no control over them.
With a much radicalized military due to years of indoctrination of Islam could also potentially create a situation where a group could steal fissile materials. CFR said “This concern is based in part on reported contingency planning by the US military to prevent Pakistani nuclear weapons from falling into the hands of terrorists.” This fear is not unfounded and is the nightmare scenario for any nation especially India.
Also every few months Pakistan test fires nuclear capable ballistic missiles capable hitting any target in India and it seems the range of these missiles just keep ever increasing. Plus Pakistan is fast developing tactical nuclear bombs which can have devastating effect in a battle but without causing collateral damage and if used against a populated city which would result in the decimation of one of its own.